The March employment report showed continued hiring and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate. Its reference period largely preceded the most dramatic April trade announcements.
Dates protect against false causation
A report cannot show the full effect of an event that happened after the survey period.
The labor market entered from strength
Continued payroll growth gave households income support as policy uncertainty increased.
Later reports would carry more evidence
Claims, openings, hours, and future payroll releases were needed before drawing conclusions about the shock.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, March 2025.