Second-quarter GDP returned to growth after a first-quarter contraction. A sharp change in imports explained part of the swing, showing how trade timing can make adjacent quarters look more different than the domestic economy really was.
Why imports are subtracted
Consumer and business spending figures include purchases of imported goods. GDP subtracts those imports to isolate production inside the United States.
A rise in imports can reduce GDP even when it reflects strong domestic buying.
Front-loading created a distortion
Businesses had pulled some imports forward earlier in the year. When that rush eased, the trade contribution moved sharply in the other direction.
Timing can dominate a quarter without becoming a lasting trend.
Follow final sales
Measures of domestic purchases and final sales can clarify what households and businesses were doing beneath trade and inventory changes.
The rebound was real, but its size needed context.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP Advance Estimate, Second Quarter 2025.