The September consumer price report showed much slower inflation than the highs reached earlier in the cycle. Shelter costs still made progress uneven, which mattered because housing carries a large weight in the index and in real household budgets.
Housing enters with a delay
Many leases change only once a year. Official shelter measures therefore absorb market changes gradually.
New-lease data can turn before the national index does.
Cooling is not reversal
A slower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly. It does not generally mean earlier increases disappear.
That is why pay growth relative to prices matters for living standards.
The final stretch can be stubborn
Goods inflation had eased more quickly than some services. Returning the overall rate to a stable target required improvement across several categories.
The report showed progress without offering a clean finish line.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2024, released October 10, 2024.